AngryJim said:
You seem to mention a whole bunch of shortcomings of 7man, but leave quite a few of XBall's shortcomings out of the picture.
No, you seem to be confusing shortcomings in FORMAT with shortcomings in PRODUCTION. I already said that if they did the same things they did with the first NXL show and filmed it the way the NPPL films they'll either be screwed or have to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on flashy graphics covering up the poor production.
When you say your friends thought xBall was repetitive, you mentioned that they couldn't tell the difference between the next point and replays. Why not? Because it was edited poorly - either because they let Jerry in the editing room of the NXL show or because they had a tiny budget for the college show. Viewers can tell the difference between new action and replays in lots of subconscious ways that we just plain havn't done yet: When you do a replay, you play it at half speed. Then the viewer knows it's a replay. And has an easier time seeing the action.
The XBall shows we've done so far have unfortunately been done for time. It's a format that really needs 2 hours of airtime to do right - to have BOTH the action AND the commentary. When you try and squeeze it into an hour time slot, which is 40-43 minutes of actual airtime, minus intros, etc, you can't even get in all 40 minutes of game time.
You watch a football game, it takes 2-3 hours to broadcast it. That's what it's going to take to do a full-on XBall match correctly, and I just don't think the people currently involved have the stomach for buying two hours of airtime.
As for the NPPL show, NPPL isn't paying for it, IMG is paying for it, and IMG is buying the airtime. They've got a department/budget that is spent on trying to develop the "next big thing". They havn't done very well with it so far - there were no out-of-industry sponsors at film-time (where you get a lot of your value with on-location/on-field presence, just look at a NASCAR race), and on the show they have Vault as a title sponsor. If some real out-of-industry sponsors don't shake out this year, you can bet that arrangement NPPL has is over.
Anyway, XBall is superior to 7-man. Most people I talk to prefer XBall to play, and it definitely has better potential to be televised in an exciting matter.
But, back to the topic at hand:
The most likely outcome is Smart Parts puts this show in the can and it never gets broadcast, or is relegated to the 2 AM time slot. That could be because they run out of the cash to edit it and put it on the air, because ESPN has better things to with their airtime, or because the rest of the industry makes a move to block it.
Less likely is they broadcast it and the same thing happens as wit the first NXL show: We all go "Wow, paintball on TV", and another industry player has a lighter wallet.
There is a remote chance that they broadcast it, a bunch of out-of-industry sponsors see what they were missing, and all line up to sponsor a whole season next year, in which case all the non-SP teams NXL teams will be in the same situation that all the NPPL teams currently are. (I do find it amusing that people say SP is screwing everyone over by doing their own show when that's what NPPL has been doing the whole time - it's not like any of the NPPL teams get any equity.)
I think worrying about a third league is silly. Neither PSP nor NPPL are profitable, so all creating a third league does is allow you to lose more money. If the SP show actually does well enough to stand on it's own, they won't have any use for a D1,D2,D3 etc, they'll just run the events by themselves or in a studio ala UAPL.