Paintball: We’ve Got a Problem!

[Chicago]

If "It's good for paintball" is your reason for why unification is inevitable, I think you may have forgotten what sport we're talking about here.

I wholeheartedly agree that it would be good for paintball. I think it would be better for paintball if it happened in a manner that Ged and the PSP folks had nothing to do with.

I think the big obstacle to unification is this: It's better for PSP and better for NPPL if they "win" (and by win, I mean be the first people to get serious out of industry money) by themselves. And I don't see how either of these two parties is going to find any concession to the other party worth the reduced payout. The only way that's going to happen is if they're pretty convinced they're going to lose, and unless by some miracle they both become convinced they're going to lose at the same time, whoever realizes they're going to win is just going to cut the other out.

Here's some more food for thought: Who needs either of them? Milt Call seems to have gotten more out-of-industry sponsorship that either NPPL or PSP, and that with the worst format and the worst pro teams and the worst TV show. Even Raehl seems to be beating NPPL/PSP on out-of-industry involvement with players who suck, although with the best TV show that no one has ever seen.

Regardless, I'm going to bet against unification. Unification MAY be the most likely single outcome, and I certainly see how you could evaluate the ituation the way you are, but there are so many other things that could happen that "one of all the other possibilities" seems a better bet.

At the end of the day, the reality is this: Neither Ged nor PSP can be successful as event promoters, because the real money, th emoney from the Cokes or Pepsi's or McDonalds or Toyotas ofr the world, does not want to invest in a league controlled by the same people who manufacture equipment for that sport. It's a huge conflict of interest that is goig to make whatever is offered by someone who isn't an equipment manufacturer much more attractive. These sponsors don't want to be subsidizing someone else's effort at selling equipment. They want to be the show.

 

[RePete]

Originally posted by Robbo
...diminishing turnovers in the US whereby the US paintball industry has seen a downturn in sales of reportedly between 25 – 30 %.

...This is actually one of the things that worries me the most. Just to take the thread on a different course for a moment, for 99% of us (Those of us not involved in the industry, or who do not play professionally), paintball is a leisure activity supported by disposable income.

From what I read (And talking to family in the US) the American economy is tanking. Interest rates and exchange rates outside the US are fluctuating, and with insanely low interest rates in the US, Americans continue to borrow to live the high life. I won't turn this into an economics rant, but to put it simply, when/if the bubble bursts in the US, paintball is going to suffer.

This goes hand in glove with the recent PGI article about industry sponsorship tightening up. The headline says "The Future of Paintball - and why your team ain't in it"...Truer words were never spoken. What other sport with a "professional" representation has "tournaments" where "non-pros" turn up and play at the same event? None I've heard of. Then you view this future landscape and criss-cross it with industry consolidation and outside investment from companies that want bigger returns on their investments, not cheaper more plentiful game play for you and me.

If I was to pick any single factor that will put the squeeze on paintball for us though, it's the increasing price of oil. Everything has to be made somewhere. Everything has to be shipped to you. You have to drive/fly to get to practice/tournaments. The increasing cost of petrol here in NZ is already having an impact on my ability to travel to events. And it's only going to get worse.

Sorry about that. I'll let everyone else get back to where they were now.

 

[Robbo]

Chicago : once again, and with no disrespect intended, you are not assessing this correctly.
Macro influences sometimes have macro effects and if you think Pure Promotions is unaware of any prejudice potential big sponsors might have in supporting a league that also is a major player within the industry in terms of product base (WDP - Angel etc), then you are mistaken.

It’s well known within the industry that companies like WDP have been on other people’s shopping list for some time now (this should give you a clue to any dynamic you are suggesting here) and I think you’ll find WDP and PP are separate companies anyway…either one of these considerations just mentioned would easily allow a big company to become involved with the league.

As for your analysis re ‘who beats who’ etc…. it’s a bit unsophisticated the way you have unfolded that one mate in that neither circuit has anything on the table waiting to be signed…lots of promises, lots of speculation but as of yet I have heard nothing but the normal rhetoric.
And as such, your scenario of who blinks first is more than likely gonna be replaced with one of an expedient unification.
There are certainly obstacles in the way of unifying but the ones you mention aren’t the ones that could prove to be stumbling blocks.


Milt Cools' apparent success is anomalous to the big picture and would not be indicative of how the industry will unfold with regard to pro team representation in any major league.
I am not for one second suggesting Milt has got lucky or anything (he's actually done a great job) I am just saying his tournament isn't going to be the genesis of Paintball's equivalent of the NFL.

 

[Chicago]

First, RePete:

no worries on the sales downturn. It was a problem across the board in all sports last year. In fact, we did better than most - we only declined a couple of percentage points on participation. The economy is recovering, and as disposable income increases, teh manufacturers will start doing better again.


Robbo:

Maybe. I certainly can't say you're wrong, just think it's gonna play out different. We'll see in a couple years.

 

[Piper]

Pete
Wow a very good post up to a point. So that's a first!

 

[cookie_834]

i havnt been in the scene long. 6/7 months infact. from this article, and this article is very confusing to my 16 year old little brain does this mean that im gonna find it hard to continue paintball or hard to chose what to do?

thanx for the help

 

[Robbo]

Originally posted by cookie_834
i havnt been in the scene long. 6/7 months infact. from this article, and this article is very confusing to my 16 year old little brain does this mean that im gonna find it hard to continue paintball or hard to chose what to do?

thanx for the help

Don't worry, it ain't really gonna affect you if you have only been playing 6 or 7 months..........

 

[Liz]

Originally posted by cookie_834
i havnt been in the scene long. 6/7 months infact. from this article, and this article is very confusing to my 16 year old little brain does this mean that im gonna find it hard to continue paintball or hard to chose what to do?

thanx for the help

They're talking international series politics here, which can be quite convoluted. As long as you're not already playing pro in a team playing an international series in it's entirety, this won't affect you for quite a while yet.

 

[Robbo]

Liz, I'm not so sure it does just affect the pros here as I think it will at some stage and to some degree impact all the tourney teams who play the Millennium Series.

A split league in 2006 will provide the Euro teams with a stark choice that will have some sampling the delights of the NPPL and others staying loyal to the Millennium.

Once that happens, income streams are hit by both sides in terms of entry fees and vendor attendance......

2006 and maybe even 2007 will be the minimum period of conflict before one of the series decides enough is enough.
The lunacy of all this is stark and unquestionable and yet we all sit on the sidelines watching it unfold in front of us like a car crash but in this case we can make a difference if we let the powers that be know what we want and what we need.

I talk to a lot of people within the industry and you would be surprised just how much power the pages of forums like these influence powerful people if (and only if) the nature of the points being made is responsible and widespread.

 

[Liz]

My bad Pete - I was being a little black & white there, plus wanting to make a short post.

Should really have said if a team is taking international tournaments seriously, aiming for series points, at whatever level rather than Pro. Any of these will be affected in the next couple of years by what happens in any fight for supremacy.
But a large majority of the teams who currently attend Millenniums only do one or two a year, and don't have a high enough level of sponsorship so their sponsors will insist on them attending one or another series. So their decision on which events to go to will be influenced more by the venue and facilities, and cost to some degree, rather than who the organisers are. My gut feeling is that there will be more teams trying a new NPPL series at least at first just so they can see what the opposition is like - they can't really decide which they prefer until they've tried both & they've all tried Millenniums in the past & very few have made the trip to the US to try NPPL.

For teams with big sponsorship, I think which camp their sponsors are supporting will affect which series they play as they will have that written into their contracts (e.g. the original PSP/X-ball rule about not playing any 7 man).