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Mark/Static

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Originally posted by Buddha 3
However, "we" have decided that Saddam is the bad dude here (something I agree with), and he should be beaten to a bloody pulp for ignoring the UN. However, at the same time the "good guys" decide to do the same thing... That just doesn't sit right. Like it or not, but the UN is still the only thing remotely resembling the "peoples of the world", and any country ignoring them is doing things that leave a bad taste in my mouth, be they the US, Iraq, Israel, or the most dangerous place of all, Holland. It makes Bush look like he's taking the same path as Saddam took many years ago.
The US has been the victim of a direct attack. So now it wants to kick ass, which makes a lot of sense. But ignoring international law and order, even if it is slow in acting, is a bad thing.
Here's an example on a more personal level: I have a 5 year old daughter. Would I go after a guy who did something bad to her? Ya damn right! Should I get the police involved? Ya damn right! Would I "sort this guy out" if the police didn't seem to be in a hurry? Ya damn right! Would I be breaking the law by doing so? Ya damn right! Would I feel better having dealt with this guy? Ya damn right! Should the police come after me? Ya damn right! Would people frown on my behavior? Ya damn right!
Do you feel that the judge and the jury should be separate entities? At this point it seems the Bush administration is the prosecution, the judge, the jury, and the executioner.... And that's scary.
Like I said in my earlier post, I have no problem with Saddam being ousted, and if that involves blowing the crap out of a few Republican Guards, I have no trouble with that either. I just don't like the arrogance that the Bush administration is showing in the way they deal with the world. That is all. That is all that should be gotten from my post.
Your 5 year old daughter analogy is somewhat flawed in that it tells of an attack that had already taken place. Here's is a closer analogy:
You know that someone is following your 5 year old daughter home from school each day. You find out that this individual has a previous record for lewd acts on minors, and an acquittal for murder. You take this up with the police, and they do nothing but spew rhetoric about requiring proof that your daughter will be harmed. Having recently experienced a member of your family being attacked a short time ago, you can appreciate the seriousness of the situation even though the police cannot. As a father your choice is clear.
Still my analogy fails in that the police in your community have more authority over you and your fellow citizens than the U.N. has among the nations of the world.
The U.N. is the centerpiece of a system of international organizations created at the end of the Second World War and shaped during the Cold War. These included the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and The World Trade Organization (WTO).
Some of these organizations, notably the IMF, the World Bank, have long been the object of criticism. And WTO has been the magnet for anti-globalization militants.
The left regards those bodies as instrument of American "imperialism," while the right accuses them of distributing aid money among corrupt third-world dictators.
Today, however, the so-called " international system" is often used to delay action to right a wrong or prevent a tragedy.
The U.N. would not have authorized the Tanzania to invade Uganda, boot out Idi Amin, and break his death machine.
Neither did the U.N. approve when the Vietnamese army invaded Cambodia to get rid of the Khmer Rouge that had already killed half of that country's population. Nor did the U.N. applaud American action to remove tyrants from power in Grenada and Haiti, and restore democratic government.
The former U.N. secretary-general Boutros Boutros-Ghali has had the courage to admit that it was guilty of criminal negligence when it did not act to stop the genocide in Rwanda (some two million dead) or in the former Yugoslavia (half a million dead). More recently, the U.N. has turned a blind eye to the genocidal war waged by Russia in Chechnya where a whole nation is being destroyed. Each time anyone did anything to right a wrong it was outside the U.N. remit, as was the case in Kosovo.
For much of the 1980s the U.N. watched as over a million Iranians and Iraqis died in a war triggered by Saddam Hussein. The Security Council ended up by passing a resolution in 1988 that Iraq continues to violate.
In 1990 the U.N. authorized the expulsion of Iraq from occupied Kuwait, and, over the following 12 years, passed 18 resolutions that demanded precise action by Iraq on a range of issues.
Kuwait was liberated by force, but Baghdad honored none of its commitments, including respect for human rights inside Iraq itself.
Even during the Cold War the U.N. was unable to prevent its members from going to war without its authorization. The Anglo-French invasion of Egypt in 1956, with Israel in supporting role, the French wars in Indochina, The U.S. intervention in Vietnam, the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, the India-China war of 1961, the four Arab-Israeli wars, the three Indo-Pakistan wars are just some of the 200 or so military conflicts which the so-called multilateral system failed to prevent.
Today, a world crisis map would show 66 conflicts with various degrees of intensity: dormant, semi-active, and hot.
Of these at least 22 could be described as either active or hot.
These rage from the genocidal war that Myanmar is waging against Muslim, and other non-Buddhist minorities, to the current civil war in Ivory Coast, and passing by the Israel-Palestine conflict. In almost every case the U.N. is either absent or used as an instrument for delaying a solution.
The official excuse, of course, is that the U.N. is nothing but the sum total of members and thus cannot be blamed as such. That, however, ignores the fact that every synthesis of contradictory elements develops a new identity. Thus the U.N. is something both less and more than the sum total of its members.
The U.N. is based on the assumption that all members are of equal stature and have equal interests, aspirations, and preoccupations.
That is a myth.
The newest member, Switzerland, is not in the same category as one of the U.N.'s founding members, Afghanistan. Nor does the Maldives have the same preoccupations as China. A majority of U.N. members are in no position to develop an analysis of the global situation and are, at best, preoccupied with their very survival. This is why they think nothing of giving the chairmanship of the U.N. commission on human rights to Libya while voting to expel the United States, or to ask Iraq to head the U.N. committee on disarmament.
The situation in the Security Council is even more anomalous.
The five permanent, or "veto" holding members, represent a balance of power that has long ceased to exist. Today India is a bigger player, in terms both of demography and economic power, than France, Britain, and Russia. In terms of economic clout, and aid to the developing nations, Japan and Germany are the second and third biggest powers after the U.S. Even if one goes by regional distribution it makes no sense that Europe should have three veto-holding seats in the council while Latin America and Africa have none. Together, the veto-holding nations account for less than a quarter of the world's population.
When it comes to the nonpermanent members of the council what we have is a lottery. Different combinations of membership could produce opposite results in the same debate. One could imagine a membership that would have given the new resolution sponsored by the U.S. and the U.K. all the ten votes of the nonpermanent members. But one could also imagine another list of members that would have turned out ten votes against the same resolution.
In most cases, however, the council is obliged to approve ambiguous, if not hermetic, texts that, far from solving the problem at hand, generate new problems. One example is the famous resolution 242 on the Palestinian issue. Another is resolution 1441. Its sponsors believed it authorized war. But at least four of those who voted for it believed it would prevent military action against Saddam.
Kurt Waldheim, a two-time secretary-general, once described the UN as a mechanism for " lying in support of peace." Waldheim, who had lied about his own Nazi past, knew what he was talking about. And nothing of value could be created through lies, diplomatic or otherwise.
 

stongle

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Sorry I disagree.

Military planners are taking extremely seriously a Chemical attack on staging areas in Kuwait etc. This would be low risk to Saddam, and a few Scuds lobbed over the border into Kuwait, or Chem-Artillery shells isn't going to expose his "Crack republican guard troops". And please don't say Patriot Missile defense. It's a propoganda weapon designed to make people feel safe, but in reality relatively ineffective.

Unlike last time where Saddam knew regime change would'nt have been welcomed by the Arab coalition, this times he's got nothing to loose (if regime change was on the US Agenda, the Israel would'nt have been withstrained). Saddam's always been interested in self preservation but this time he's really out of options. Slugging it out Stalingrad stylee will only result in a probable coup d'etat anyway. It dosen't matter what he does anymore, so he may as well martyr himself and Iraq, besides a premptive Iraqi strike no matter how nasty will be seized upon as a PR victory and could rally support for him amoungst his military..

I agree with the Military route, but some peoples complacency is astounding. It does worry me how some contributers are alittle too gung-ho about war. Fact, only a tiny percentage of the ordanance we're gonna drop will be precision guided. Fact, the quality and accuracy of the precision guided weaponary is largely untested (and questionable, like only a third of your precision guided stuff actually hits the target), forget what we all saw on CNN last time around, that was for press consumption and it is now acknowledged must of the stuff was way of target. Fact you are facing battle hardened units who fought a ten year war against Iran, how much combat experience does some of the US army units have?. Fact you are facing an enemy with little to lose. Fact if it goes Chemical you can forget about combat effectivness in a Chemical environment, your gonna have to retaliate or escalate in kind.

NO offence I think we should be taking military action, but this ain't gonna be the push over everybody thinks it will be, surely best to prepare for the worst? I support The US led coalition and I hope you are correct about the Iraqi army shatting it, just don't see it as cut n'dried.
 

Justin Owen

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Good points

I don't disagree with you...I see what you say as entirely plausible. I'm just not sure what Saddam orders is what'll end up being executed by the avg. Joe soldier.

I remember that highway to hell thing from Desert Storm and after a few days of getting stomped like nobody's business those soldiers in hordes started hanging it up. To them it just wasn't worth it. I just kinda think most of 'em will still feel that way...when they see those tanks rolling across the desert and hear the planes coming, they'll remember Desert Storm and think "fight and die (for what, again???)" or "give up and live (and the only thing we lose is Saddam!)." The avg. Joe soldier won't see it as nothing to lose (like Saddam will, you're right in what you say)...they'll know the pow's in Desert Storm were treated well and they've got loads to lose.

Naturally, I could be wrong...but what I EXPECT is that resistance won't be what it was twelve years ago. However, I would plan for the worst and I hope (and expect) that's what our guys are doing.

About the pre-emptive strike...aside from exposing the belly of whatever war machine he's still harboring, doing it would only accelerate the inevitable. If he started to invade a neighbor, I kind of imagine that the 48 hour timetable would fly right out the window and the attack would simply begin. The end effect would only weaken his forces. But again, it's just what I speculate and if I'm wrong, it wouldn't be the first time. I just think it would be a major step in the wrong direction for him, and if he did it it would provide a significant advantage to us.

Oh well...this is why I'm in medicine and not military.
:)
~J~

PS...one other thing...
I'm not too sure Saddam hasn't convinced himself that this'll all "work out" for him in the end. It's a terrible analogy, but like the AXPA tournament here in the states two or three years ago. The inevitable was apparent to everyone except the man in charge, who kept on clinging to some kind of hope or belief that "everything will work out." Maybe Saddam's telling himself we really won't attack and maybe he's convinced it's all a bluff to get him to step down and maybe he thinks we'll pull back...whatever. He's an interesting person but I'd give myself a stroke trying to figure out how his mind works.
 

headrock6

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Originally posted by Buddha 3
I doubt Saddam will be able to use chemical weapons on a scale of any impact. If he still has any left, I bet the US planners know full well where the stuff is hidden, and I think those stockpiles will be amongst the first sites to be targeted. It'll be one sided mostly. The only thing that might not be that easy is the actual taking of Baghdad, if the Republican Guard decide to stand and fight.

Its a possibility he could use them but it could turn out worse for them than it does us..Chemical weapon dispersement relys heavily on the wind and in the hands of the Iraqi dolts we could have a chemical cloud floating over Baghdad before we even get there..I agree they probably will target them at the onset of the war but that still doesnt gaurantee we will get them all..Seems just yesterday it was reported that some of his soldiers have been equipped down south with some chemical munitions so our intelligence is moving along well...

The road to Baghdad should be an easy one..If Hussien decides to blow up his bridges and set some fires it could take the soldiers a few days longer to march around the open desert..Baghdads only 300 miles coming in from the North or South..Once in Baghdad we'll cut off major routes running into the city and possibly send Delta Force and other special forces units into the city to engage the Republican Guard and those arond Hussien..Hopefully most of them will revolt before that even happens(wishful thinking :) )...Seems our psychological warfare ploys have been having a pretty nasty effect within some the ranks already....And if ya carefully listened to Bush's speech last night,he clearly refrained from mentioning any of his upper ranked officials to leave with Hussien and Sons...Maybe if they think they'll get a free pass,it might spurn one of em to place a well timed bullet to Hussiens head..I also liked the quote "The day of your liberation is near"..Clearly a parting shot to the French as De Gaulle,during WW2,announced that same statement before the retaking of Paris...Oh well..

Its weird..For all the bickering and fighting thats been going on the last few months on this topic,I thought id be happy on the day this finally came..Last night,sadness creeped into my view for the first time...I think everybody wanted this to come to an end peacefully,but unfortunately sometimes war is necessary to achieve peace..It might have a little to do with oil,Israel,or an assasination attempt..But it mainly has to do with the worlds security and the freedom of opressed people...And thats a good enough reason for me...

And how many of ya think we might be having the same discussion in 6 months when we have to disarm Korea??..What a F**CKED up world we live in...


-6
 

manike

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Re:

Originally posted by Justin Owen
Which brings me to a thought: I don't see it as at all beyond the realm of possibility that there could be a last-minute coup. In fact a part of me is kind of expecting it. His support among his senior staff has got to be running on empty and all it could take would be a certain individual to step up to bat and speak what all of his officers are already thinking.
I've been thinking the same... and maybe the whole point of Bush's 48 hours deadline and appeal to the Iraqi's last night... was to allow time to try and get that to happen.
 

Solonor

New Member
hmm...

OK ,so If I understand right we shouldn't give a **** anymore about the U.N. cuz it has made so many stupid mistakes. Let's all trust the U.S. ,right?
The U.S. is not after cheap oil. The U.S. is after their oil. Economists from the U.S. stated (maybe a bit dramatically) that a quick war is dollars last chance to compete agst the Euro. But either way when this war ends ,Justin ,and the contracts are signed ,I'll buy you a beer ,If still the oil belongs to Russian , German and French companies.
And 1 thing more. I agree in some point with you in the fact that I don't care for the reasons. People are gonna die. That's enough for me to disagree.
Hey ,I love ya all too! :)
Antony Pashos
 

Buddha 3

Hamfist McPunchalot
Having looked at some more details, I wish to set my starting date back to saturday morning. This because the US will likely respect the muslem day of worship, which is friday, and because it will not be full moon anymore, making the Iraqi army even more blind.

Mark, good point on the analogy.

As far as the twin towers are concerned, they were indeed designed to withstand the impact of a plane of comparable size, but one that was flying at lower speed. The fact that they didn't topple straight away is indeed a testimony to their great strength, but there were flaws in the design. There is a rule that says that stairwells must be placed at least one third of the diagonal of the building apart, they were not. Meaning that most stairwells were destroyed in the impact, trapping more people above the inferno than should have happened. Also, the buildings would have lasted longer, perhaps even survived(ish) if the fireprooving on the supportbeams was A) fully covering, and B) As thick layered as it was designed to be. These are all documented facts. A few years ago the trouble with the fireproofing had been brought to the attention of the people in charge of the WTC (Port Authority?), and they had indeed started work to replace it in one of the towers. But like I said, I still blame the people flying the planes into the buildings, without them nothing would have happened.

Republican Guard: They were indeed pretty crap last time round, but any unit with it's lines of communication cut would be in the same state of disarray (a good example is the US 106th infantry, which took the full brunt of both the 6th SS Panzer Armee [Diettrich] and the 5th Panzer Armee [Von Manteuffel] during the Battle of the Bulge). Well done to the guys planning that part of the offensive. This time around (if used wisely) they might not be so easy to crack. If they decide to sit tight in the major cities, it'll take more than a show of force to shift them. City fighting is probably the wordt kind of warfare. During the battle for Stalingrad in 1942/1943 the soldiers called it a 'Rattenkrieg', or rat's war for that reason. Hopefully it will not get to that.
The problem with urban warfare is that even carpet bombing will not shift the defenders. It will only turn the city into an easy to defend pile of rubble (as history has proven so many times). The Russian army that went into Berlin outnumbered their enemy with mindboggling numbers, yet they still suffered 100.000 dead to an army that was already defeated and consisted for by far the most part of troops unfit for warfare (the young, the old, and the invalid).

Anyway, I'm done with the political part of this thread, because as usual people will not agree, no matter how much we talk about it. And that's cool. I am however quite happy to talk more technical stuff, and/or military theories, since arguments over those tend to be done more by the rational part of the brain instead of the emotional part. And are therefore less likely to become heated.

One thing guys. We all talk about this from behind our computers, and it's all fine and dandy. But if you can, I recommend you talk to a veteran of any war. I have spoken to people who fought in WW2, including Bill Guarnere of Band of Brothers fame. Also, one of my closest friends is an American guy who fought in Panama and Desert Storm. All these people tell a harrowing tale, and they all carry emotional scars that will never heal. My friend was part of an artillery unit that was attached to the 82nd Airborne, a unit that looks destined to be one of the first to go in again. He was parachuted behind Iraqi lines during the starting moments of the previous war. After they had depleted their rounds for the 105mm howitzers they were dropped with, they were told to advance on an Iraqi position. They came onto a complex of bunkers and trenches. Being part of the airborne means you are equipped as light infantry, meaning they had no direct way to reduce the bunkers. Luckily for them the advance of the ground forces came so rapid that they were able to call in the help of some armour, which proceeded to use their dozer/mine plow tanks to shovel the bunkers underneath the sand. The next day they came onto another defensive belt that the armoured columns had bypassed (standard MO during a blitzkrieg). When requesting assistence they were told that the big stuff had advanced too far for them to land a helping hand, and that they had to sort things out themselves. They did. They used the nightfighting ability of the US military. Under the cover of darkness they infiltrated the Iraqi trenchsystems, using their IR goggles to enable them to see. They encountered sleeping Iraqis and a few sentries who were too surprised to put up much of a fight. However, since this was at a point in time that the ground war was still in full swing, and they were a single, small outfit they had no means to process POW's. They took none. I don't think I need to go into details as to what happened. At that point in time (this is what he told me) it didn't bother him that much, but ten years down the line all the dead he had seen started coming back to haunt him. Now, at New Year's, which we Dutch celebrate by setting off fireworks, he is a quivering piece of human tragedy that hides underneath the couch because of the flashbacks he gets. A friend of my family served in Korea, and to this day he dives into the bushes when a jet flies over. He was bombed by friendly air forces.
This is the sort of drama that awaits those about to go up and over. So even if we can't agree on the politics behind all this, let's at least unite in our hopes that for their sake the whole thing will be over very quickly, and with a minimum amount of bloodshed.
 

JoseDominguez

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Re: Re:

Originally posted by Mark/Static
I've actually began to ignore those kinds of statements as being unworthy of a response. As if box-cutters were actually thrown at the WTC and the Pentagon. I'm sure if an al-Qaeda operative picked up some VX from Saddam and released it in the air-conditioning of some convention center, the $2 screw-driver used to gain access to the duct-work would be focused on as the real culprit, not the VX from Saddam.
Actually I made that point....... but it was taken out of context from a larger statement. My point was... when have terrorists used weapons of mass destruction? they manage to cause monumental, horrific damage with nothing more than a 75p craft knife....... yes, they could have released VX into the twin towers or the pentagon, they could have killed a lot of people........ but it would have been a dam sight easier to deal with than two jumbo jets packed with fuel and passengers. I never blamed box cutters (my post was just cut to make it look that way).
My point was..... "you can remove all of the weapons of mass destruction, but the terrorists greatest weapon is fanaticism........half a dozen fanatics willing to die and armed from a DIY shop can commit an atrocy equal to a couple of million dollars worth of chemical/biological weapons.
Before we start panicking about chemical and biological weapons, worry about the nutter three doors down who'll drive a petrol tanker into a school bus. There ya' go, try and take that one out of context.
 

Mark/Static

New Member
Originally posted by stongl
And please don't say Patriot Missile defense. It's a propoganda weapon designed to make people feel safe, but in reality relatively ineffective.
Why does it HAVE to be propaganda? You're so good at stating facts below, let me acquaint you with some here.
Fact: 60% of the Scuds launched by Iraq were simply disintegrating upon reentry. I used to be a radar operator in the US Navy, the assumption that a Patriot shot a Scud falling apart was a natural one and led to the intial high success rates.
Fact: In the end it was determined that the Patriot did have a 20% success rate, which isn't bad considering that it was never designed as an anti-Balistic missile system.
Fact: The Patriot is the only missile in history to destroy a balistic missile in real combat.
The omission of these facts can be considered propaganda too.
Originally posted by stongl
It dosen't matter what he does anymore, so he may as well martyr himself and Iraq, besides a premptive Iraqi strike no matter how nasty will be seized upon as a PR victory and could rally support for him amoungst his military..
I don't dismiss the notion that Saddam may launch a preemptive strike, but your claim that he may say anything to the effect of, "I have nothing to lose, so I will martyr myself." is contrary to every personality trait he has displayed over the years. For one thing if it comes down to that, there will be nothing for him to be a martyr for and he knows it. Besides it's been said by more than one source that Saddam's subordinates refuse to tell him things that may upset him and may result in him killing the messenger.
Originally posted by stongl
Fact, the quality and accuracy of the precision guided weaponary is largely untested (and questionable, like only a third of your precision guided stuff actually hits the target), forget what we all saw on CNN last time around, that was for press consumption and it is now acknowledged must of the stuff was way of target.
Please show me where to look up these "facts" of yours. And yes, everyone needs to forget what they saw with their own eyes.
Originally posted by stongl
Fact you are facing battle hardened units who fought a ten year war against Iran, how much combat experience does some of the US army units have?
This is a joke right? I mean you are kidding me, you didn't write this with a straight face did you?
Sure, 23 years ago Saddam threw his "4th largest standing army in the world" against an Iranian army gutted by the Ayatolah's purges, and managed to fight to a stalemate in only 8 years. With that experience fresh in their minds, the Iraqi army, 2 years later, decided it was time to work on their upper bodies against the Americans by doing sets of arm raises, weapons tosses, and the ever popular white flag jumping-jacks.
Originally posted by stongl
Fact you are facing an enemy with little to lose.
An enemy that recently tried to surrender to British troops when they heard their artillery target practice and thought the war had begun. An enemy that is forbidden by their commanders to possess any white fabric lest it be used as a flag of surrender.
 
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