Thing is... I'm not buyin it yet. Here's why.
T-16 minutes to landing, the orbiter does the first of it's "S" turns. It's the moment that the shuttle goes from rocket boosters to flaps, it goes form SPACE craft to a glider. (Or, more correctly, it goes from floating in space to being a highly polished brick....)
So the fact that they keep on talking about how this happened 16 minutes out from landing got me thinking.
They lost communications with a wing moments before they went out of control. It was also moments before, or durring, the first "S" turn. The footage I've seen stateside here looks like a meteorite falling into the atmosphere, leading me to believe it was out of control.
PLUS, the max heating of reentry is around T-20 minutes to landing!
I have nothing to back this up with, but my theory is that one wing went out. You can't steer a glider with one set of flaps, let alone the flying cow that the orbiter is. So in theory, the orbiter was comgin in as usual, 28-38 degree angle. They try to tip the nose down with the flaps on teh wings, and one wing isn't responding. They try to do an "S" turn, and nothing happens. They try to push the stick (YES, there is a flight stick for landing! it's done MANUALLY!!!!) and one wing responds, the other does not.
The shuttle makes a 'wild' turn (imagine a barrel roll but twisted) that it's not designed for, the pilot lose her, and she tumbles. The top tiles aren't meant to shed heat like the bottom tiles, and the friction of the atmosphere burns them off.
To me this is infinately more plausable than losing "a tile or two" and having the rest sheer off like a zipper or the so-called "Blowtorch" effect if one magical tile was gone. Those tiles aren't just glued in with superglue and grouted in, you know. The orbiter would hae had problems in orbit, IMHO, if this was the case.
Who knows? They could have been hit by a micrometeorite or a loose bit of space junk too. The orbiter was moving around 18 times the speed of sound when the accident happened. At that speed, a wingnut may as well be a wrecking ball.
-Tyger