New king of the hill?

[Buddha 3]

Well.....

Originally posted by Nick Brockdorff
Marketing 101..... if there is no audience for it, paintball will not make a major breakthrough on tv (which is the whole basis for scenario 3), so in this scenario, a broad tv audience is a given. - If there is a broad tv audience, there will as a natural consequence also be a much broader market for paintball goods than today (the two go hand in hand). If the market is much broader, prices WILL drop, because that's how markets work - in ANY business - unless people want to violate anti-trust laws and go to jail for years and years.

Nick

Nick, things only work that way in economy textbooks at mid level schools, and I'm sure that deep down inside you know this. You're just an optimist.

 

[Buddha 3]

Oh c'mon Nick...

You know that the marketing principle you posted is an overly simplified one. I too have plenty of experience in international marketing. Paintball isn't my main trade, far from it. You know as well as I do that any company that suddenly sees it's sales sky rocket has no reason at all to lower it's prices, plain and simple.
Don't get grouchy just because people have a different view. It's what makes these forums fun! Not everything is meant as a personal attack.

Jeez, I added a smiley too...

 

[DK1]

Originally posted by Buddha 3
Oh c'mon Nick...

You know that the marketing principle you posted is an overly simplified one. I too have plenty of experience in international marketing. Paintball isn't my main trade, far from it. You know as well as I do that any company that suddenly sees it's sales sky rocket has no reason at all to lower it's prices, plain and simple.

With all respect...

Yes, of course a company with high demand won't lower prices. That's one of the main tenents of economics. High demand = high prices.

What it's leaving out is the concept of a "broad market" which is different than just stong demand. Nick never said anything about a high demand equalling lower prices, he said a broader market would.

If paintball really took off, and a lot of people started getting into it, the demand would rocket up. So, yes, a lot of companies would start making a large amount of money. Then, a lot of other people would see them making a lot of money, and want a piece of the action. They'd start up competing businesses (K2, anyone?). Thus, now there is more competition... that is what leads to the lower prices.

And, to a point, that has already happened in paintball. Paint is a heck of a lot cheaper now than it was 10 years ago, or even 5 years ago. You can get a heck of a lot more firepower for a lot less money. Heck, for $300 I can get a gun that shoots just as fast as an original LCD angel, and it won't chop as much. You can get a lot better protective gear for a lot less money. You can get a lot better everything in paintball for a lot less money. Airball fields are cheaper now. Chronos are cheaper now. There is now higher end equipment that IS more expensive, but that is partially due to the fact that it has a lot more value added. VL revvies used to be $60. Now you can get something that feeds twice as fast for $115 (and money has depreciated, so in fact in real terms it costs less).

I think one thing that being on TV would help is fields themselves. With more exposure comes more new players. In small market areas, where people struggle to get 20 people to show up on a saturday, that would help dramatically. An I know that if it weren't for little fields staying in business, I would have to drive for well over an hour just to get a game together. Either that, or back to outlaw play.

DK1

 

[Buddha 3]

Jeez Nick, now who is trying to be insulting here?

First of all you need to get your facts straight. Retail mark up mostly is far less than 50% (having close relationships with a paintball retailer I can state this as a fact).

I am well aware that the machineries of economics are far more complex than both you and I have described here, but you posted your original model as though it was fact, and now you say that it is more complex than that, exactly what I was saying. Only difference being that I pointed out the other side of the coin. And market doubling 10 times? Get real...maybe in Lalaland.

And I KNOW that paintball as a business is still in it's infancy. I often laugh at the way business is done on this industry. So there we agree.

I just don't see things happening as you do. I don't see paintball going large in the same way you appear to do. I'm not as optimistic as you are...

Peace.

 

[Buddha 3]

Ehm ?

Originally posted by Nick Brockdorff
1) How am I insulting you ???

2) Anyway.... I'm not talking about retail mark-up - as you will see if you read it again !

I'm talking about the difference between the cost of manufacture, and the price at which they sell to retailers...... as said.... if you factor in the retailers mark up, it's WELL above 50 % from the cost of manufacture..... the point was, that in larger industries where products of similar complexity and workmanship are manufactured, there is usually a mark up of 20-30 % from the cost of manufacture, to retail price, simply because they operate in a much larger and more compettetive market.

3) Saying the market will ten double, is an example - to make the issue clear..... as this pertains to "scenario 3" - where paintball makes a big breakthrough on tv...... which for the record I do NOT see it doing.... I'm still responding to the whole "tv is bad for the majority of the teams" thing.

4) You kind of proved my point here Jay - I'm trying to discuss the possible impact of tv on paintball in general terms - and you hit me back with "market doubling 10 times? Get real...maybe in Lalaland."

Nick

1) I guess in the same way I insulted you. Probably unintentional as we both seemed to have read something in each other's post that may not have been there.

2) Good explanation, but this was not at all clear from your original post. But now that you've added this nuance, it makes more sense. Although I do not fully agree with you. Yes, the cost of the basic materials to make, for example, a marker is not that high. We use low grade stuff (aluminium), some rubber rings and some electronics, which are dirt cheap. But keep in mind that, because we are a small market, overheads count for a far larger percentage on the actual cost of a single product. I know you know this Nick, I'm just stating what's obvious to you and me for the benefit for the few onlookers who have not yet gone to another thread. I doubt the profit margins are as large as you claim them to be. But I'd be happy to be proven wrong, I have no problem with that.

3) Just working off of what you posted...

4) How does that prove your point? Again, just working off what you posted...

As for what I think will happen: I think TV will have a minimal impact in the number of people that will play paintball. We might see some growth in the number of people that do a rental day, and as such we will probably also see a small growth in the number of people that will eventually purchase their own gear. But nothing that will mean a lot in the big scheme of things. Paintball will, in my opinion, never be a big hit on TV and will just sit on the fringe as it always has (with perhaps a little more exposure).
However, sticking to your scenario number 3, with paintball going through the roof, I think the sponsorship packages available will change dramatically. Very little to no sponsorship from the paintball industry itself will be available to the lower tier teams, as it does not make a whole lot of sense for these companies to spend money on teams that get no publicity. However, depending on how big it really gets, two things can happen. First, if paintball does well, but not wel enough to warrant the creation of localised leagues (non national, more like regional), this could be disastrous for the smaller teams, as it doesn't make sense for "Eat at Joe's" in Mudville to advertise via a team that plays in tournaments on the other side of the country. But if paintball does get large enough to be able to support localised leagues, local, small companies may well spend money on local teams. That way, even though they might not get their paint direct, teams will still be able to pay their bills.

 

[Baca Loco]

Perhaps if we we retool the basis for the discussion we might make a wee bit o' progress. Forget "bad" and stick with results. What happens if PB on TV succeeds?

So far, Nick, the best you've got is the marketplace for PB changes in such a way we all might see lower prices for stuff at some non-specific point in time well into the future.
All good were it to work out that way but I doubt that's what motivates the average tourney baller. Yet if you were to ask a random assortment of tourney ballers about PB and TV most of 'em would get all excited and insist that would practically be heaven on earth. Obviously they all have some sort of expectations about what PB on TV means. How realistic are those expectations?

What happens to the traveling road show all-inclusive tournament format?

What happens to non-Pros?

What additional changes does the drive to succeed on TV bring?

Does success on TV necessarily equate to bottom success for PB generally?

Does TV success take control of the game out of the players' hands? [For example, in some respects rampant technology is driving the game but only because the players embrace it--for whatever reason. Same with Sup'Air instead of woods. If the players had tried Sup'Air and decided as a group, back to the woods, we'd mostly still be playing in the woods.]

 

[Grendel-Khan]

If you want to see what happens to paintball after TV all you have to do is look at any other sport. TV producers will absolutely refuse to show anything but the pros. That is where not some, but all of the TV money goes. I see the big tournies breaking down into just traveling showcases for the prominent pro teams. I think local and regional tournies will increase in size and serve as vital and necessary functionaries, feeding talent to the pros. Much like Triple A baseball in the states, or the lower divisions in European football. I love the relegation system being implemented in the NPPL, but with out as much coverage or exposure, not many companies will hemorrage the sponsorship money like they do now. With regular TV coverage more money will be spent on TV ads and individual players that can make those ads. Lower ranked teams won't have the backing they enjoy now, and individual skill is more likely to get you that NIKE deal than a first place AM finish. Maybe I'm being paranoid, but once PB hits TV it stops being a sport and becomes a business. If the ratings aren't there, neither is the money and what happens if PB gets booted off TV?

 

[Juice]

Come on, TV is gonna be great for everybody!

Yes NIKE, both Colas and other "super" brands are naturally putting their money on pros and pro leagues only.

BUT, when you or I can walk to my nearest home street hardware store, pharmacy, bank, pizzeria etc. and talk with the manager about that great game between Philly and Oakland or how O.Lang is travelling in Europe... and the manager actually knows what you are talking about.
- Thats when us humble amateurians start having real (and I mean money) sponsors!!

Think about it!

No, we amateurians are not going to get any more money out of DYE, JT, WDP than we are getting now...

But:

When paintball as a sport comes out of that hypnotizing macig box we call TV.
Then your friends dad (who owns a car part store) is suddenly interested about the tournament your team is going, because paintball is something he has seen on TV. And thats why he thinks giving your team a 500 dollars is actually same as getting a TV commercial...

And if you were really waiting for limos, cheerleaders and six-figure sums... (Well, your parents should have bought you a tennis racket/green card/ice-hockey skates for your 3 year birthday.)

So I am waiting TV with a smile on my face.
(probably have to wait for awhile here in Finland, but still smiling)

 

[Grendel-Khan]

Good points, Juice. I wasn't trying to say that there would be no money or exposure for us, only that the focus of advertisers and sponsors would shift much more heavily towards the pros. The lower level teams will have to rely more on local sponsors, and local sponsors want to see the teams play in local events. Joe Bobs Goober Repair Shop won't spend thousands of dollars to sponsor a team that plays half their games out of state or country. I think this will lead to a more agrandated state for local tournies which will in turn feed their best teams into the national tourny scene. The great thing about paintball is it's grassroots participation levels. Much like the events in the X-games, there is a huge player and fan base before the TV deals, and that base will survive after the TV deals. I will ball til the day I die, sponsored or not, and I know most players feel the same. I just feel that TV type people don't care about anything but pros, and they would be more than willing to completely change everything we know about PB in order to raise the ratings. Like they say though, there is no such thing as bad publicity and I, for one, can't wait to see major TV coverage.

 

[Markie X]

Personally i think that if paintball has any entertainment value
it would be in the hands of any T.V. producer out there moulded
to a ‘’Gladiators’’ style production.
If we want to survive as a sport is it not our responsabilty to establish
ourselves as one ?
Up till now you could not convince any outsider that we are to be taken
serious as a sport, our events are mediocre to say the least.
Who says that when paintball hits T.V. it will not be a pball version of Survivor
or a MTV Celebrity deathmatch >>> i bet your average Joe wouldn’t
switch channels within 2 min. (which is the case with any format out there at
the moment) and in the eye of a producer there is no Holy Grail so they can
come up with whatever they want.
So PBall making it big on T.V. within our current competition formats, don’t
think so...but i agree with Nick on the basis that a hugely expanded market
would create more competition between businesses and we all know that
competition is good for customers...
I couldn’t care less if paintball makes it big on T.V. for now, it wouldn’t benefit
any tournament player that is playing now what so ever.
There is more then enough money out there to establish ourselves as a sport,
we don’t need T.V. we need some women that can make some decisions

There way to much testosterone out there at the moment, people can’t think clearly...

What I'm curious about is the fact if most people compare competition pball on T.V.
as something as say soccer (huge fanbase, established in a different time and rapidly
declining) or say modern F1 (artificially created, molded to T.V. and also slowly declining)

anyway don't rape me on this post, i haven’t got any coffee yet so be gentle