Break up of the euro imminant.

[stongle]

If that prediction is realised are the chances of a euro break up more likely? Surely if recession hits, the likes of Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy (let alone Greece) are going to be proferring the begging bowls once again - and how will the Germans view that? The Mark to hit the financial markets again?

Come on Glenn, give us a view!

Well, I don't see Germany willing to underwrite the whole of Southern Europe and Ireland so you're probably spot on. A Euro without the Souther European states (+ Ireland) or a new DeutscheMark (maybe with a bit of Guilder thrown in).

Italy, France and Germany have to refinance (roll) between 0.6-0.8 trillion of Govt debt this year, first auction up on Thursday. I suspect we will see France loss it's triple A this year placing a lot of pressure on their borrowing costs.

Every indication I see is that the EURO will drop to 1:1.2 against the USD, and possibly on closer to parity. Empty out your holiday change and sell it, buy assault rifles and freeze dried ready meals.

 

[Buddha 3]

For a country like Holland a drop in the value of the Euro ain't all doom and gloom though. We rely mostly on export to make our monies.