Signs of Trouble?
- Thread starter Baca Loco
- Start date
ummmm -
Boston is in the heart of paintball country; it supports GPL, NEPL, its where the game came from and is arguably one of the most active markets, on a par with central, cali, TX and southeast.
I'll say it. Attendance is down because sponsorships are drying up; prices are up because attendance is drying up. Attendance is down because mom and dad can't afford the bills any longer for little johnny to travel across the country 5 to 10 times per year. Attendance is down because 30% of the fields and stores have closed.
Interesting, that number: the difference between HB attendance and San Diego is 38%...; since HB is always the biggest, I attribute the extra 8-10% to that.
Doom, gloom, blah, blah: the industry is down for a whole lot of different reasons, not the least of which is the fact that some of the driving engines (NPS & PMI to name two) are embroiled in their own issues and not contributing much this year to pushing events.
Little Johnny is finding other leisure time activities because there's no budget for paintball and there are no concerted efforts to grow the base. At least none that are showing results.
In reality, I consider the approximate 30% loss to be a return to actual/real numbers. I think everyone has to get used to the idea of a smaller-scale industry. We lose a couple of paint manufacturers, two or three publications, several gun manufacturers, etc., and everyone will be back on a sustainable path.
Now, Chicago - now you may nit pick
Boston is in the heart of paintball country; it supports GPL, NEPL, its where the game came from and is arguably one of the most active markets, on a par with central, cali, TX and southeast.
I'll say it. Attendance is down because sponsorships are drying up; prices are up because attendance is drying up. Attendance is down because mom and dad can't afford the bills any longer for little johnny to travel across the country 5 to 10 times per year. Attendance is down because 30% of the fields and stores have closed.
Interesting, that number: the difference between HB attendance and San Diego is 38%...; since HB is always the biggest, I attribute the extra 8-10% to that.
Doom, gloom, blah, blah: the industry is down for a whole lot of different reasons, not the least of which is the fact that some of the driving engines (NPS & PMI to name two) are embroiled in their own issues and not contributing much this year to pushing events.
Little Johnny is finding other leisure time activities because there's no budget for paintball and there are no concerted efforts to grow the base. At least none that are showing results.
In reality, I consider the approximate 30% loss to be a return to actual/real numbers. I think everyone has to get used to the idea of a smaller-scale industry. We lose a couple of paint manufacturers, two or three publications, several gun manufacturers, etc., and everyone will be back on a sustainable path.
Now, Chicago - now you may nit pick
30% of fields closing is not indicative of a 30% contraction in the industry. It's indicative of crappy fields closing. 10 years ago a 'paintball field' was whatever was located on the land the farmer wasn't farming on. Now paintball fields are full-on developments specifically for that purpose, and are run on a cost-competitive basis to Tom's Back-Barn paintball field, and are driving those fields out of business. Which is the way it should be.
I don't see any less players, I just see them concentrated at slick indoor fields and slick outdoor fields. That's a consolidation in the number of fields, but not in the number of participants, and everyone is getting a better-quality experience.
As I mentioned before, this new breed of field has no interest in supporting tournament teams. And I think that does have an effect on the number of teams attending events. But again, participation in tournaments *IS NOT* 'health of paintball'. It's 'health of tournament paintball', and the two must not be confused. There's no doubt that the paintball industry until very recently has been dominated by people who were paintball players who had a personal reason to support tournament paintball, but as more and more paintball businesses get sold off to investment groups, that non-profit-driven support is going to continue to dry up.
Regardless, reduced attendence at NPPL events is due do increased entry fees (mainly) and decreased support of TOURNAMENT paintball by fields. It's not because of a 30% slump in the industry - that slump doesn't exist.
I don't see any less players, I just see them concentrated at slick indoor fields and slick outdoor fields. That's a consolidation in the number of fields, but not in the number of participants, and everyone is getting a better-quality experience.
As I mentioned before, this new breed of field has no interest in supporting tournament teams. And I think that does have an effect on the number of teams attending events. But again, participation in tournaments *IS NOT* 'health of paintball'. It's 'health of tournament paintball', and the two must not be confused. There's no doubt that the paintball industry until very recently has been dominated by people who were paintball players who had a personal reason to support tournament paintball, but as more and more paintball businesses get sold off to investment groups, that non-profit-driven support is going to continue to dry up.
Regardless, reduced attendence at NPPL events is due do increased entry fees (mainly) and decreased support of TOURNAMENT paintball by fields. It's not because of a 30% slump in the industry - that slump doesn't exist.
Chi, I was talking to 'somebody' who would beg to differ this point as he made pains to tell me, 'the bad debt situation in the industry at the moment is at an all time high' ........ I am not saying this to be contentious or contrary in any way but if this guy tells me this is the case, then trust me Chi, this is the case.
That's quite possible, without any contraction in the industry. A lot of paintball companies spent money like their business was going to continue to grow at the rate it was growing. But tha tonly works for EVERYBODY if the WHOLE INDUSTRY continues to grow at that rate - which just isn't possible. The industry has to stop growing at some point because you just run out of people.
So if you made a bunch of purchases of smaller companies and put up 3 more warehouses expecting your business to increase 40% this year like it did the previous year, you're going to be in trouble.
Even though the number of players is the same.
And Now For Something Completely Different ...
Right, I'm gonna help y'all out.
Chi, I tend to agree with your take on where bad or outstanding debt is coming from and largely why. It certainly affected bigger companies so to imagine that smaller operations didn't do some of the same things is probably a mistake. I won't pretend to know about all fields and the how and why of the failing ones but I do think you're postulation certainly has merit even if the failures and their sources are a more complex issue.
As for the State of Paintball, I'm unconcerned. As to the State of Tournament Paintball--that's a different dealio. There is NO question that industry side sponsorship has shrunk. And it hasn't been taken up by other sources--for a variety of reasons. So what to do?
How about recreate the face of tournament paintball? Make it cheaper to participate, cheaper to promote and support all the while encouraging the grassroots local development of players and teams. Sound pretty good?
Here's how--(for the rest of the story check out the November issue of PGi)--
Jettison everything from the national level except Pro ball and a World Cup-like event.
Oh, you want the details? Sure, in a minute or three.
Right, I'm gonna help y'all out.
Chi, I tend to agree with your take on where bad or outstanding debt is coming from and largely why. It certainly affected bigger companies so to imagine that smaller operations didn't do some of the same things is probably a mistake. I won't pretend to know about all fields and the how and why of the failing ones but I do think you're postulation certainly has merit even if the failures and their sources are a more complex issue.
As for the State of Paintball, I'm unconcerned. As to the State of Tournament Paintball--that's a different dealio. There is NO question that industry side sponsorship has shrunk. And it hasn't been taken up by other sources--for a variety of reasons. So what to do?
How about recreate the face of tournament paintball? Make it cheaper to participate, cheaper to promote and support all the while encouraging the grassroots local development of players and teams. Sound pretty good?
Here's how--(for the rest of the story check out the November issue of PGi)--
Jettison everything from the national level except Pro ball and a World Cup-like event.
Oh, you want the details? Sure, in a minute or three.
you know, I just love how Chicago has to be contrarian on every single point, doesn't cut any slack for obvious assumptions and HAS to jump on every issue.
DOH! of course there's no direct connection between tournament attendance and industry downfall. It was an interesting comparison, that's all.
And, my friend (and Baca too) - you're incorrect if you're assuming that the industry's problems are due to a few companies out-spending their cash flow - and probably for two separate reasons.
First - suppose for the moment that it is just cash flow issues; welp, guess what? those companies supported lots of other companies, which in turn supported yet others, etc. The drying up of their ready cash has already negatively affected several manufacturers, numerous freelance designers and directly affected multiple fields and stores who were economically propped up by sweetheart funding and supply deals.
Second - those folks had a previously good track record of assessing the ebb and flow of the industry and deciding when the time (and cash) was ripe for making big moves - like acquiring smaller companies and building three new warehouses.
Think about it for just a few seconds (well, some of you may have to devote a couple of minutes...); what's the difference between the previous decade of growth and expansion and the last couple of years? Could it be that they've turned into spendthrift idiots overnight? Maybe. But I think it more likely that the steady ROI they were counting on to support future growth went bye-bye. There's two reasons that could have happened: increased competition in the marketplace (definately some of that - most of which are the companies that got purchased by the people we're talking about) OR - significant decrease in demand.
There's no doubt that the industry is contracting - none whatsoever - and I talk and consult on a regular basis with some of the largest companies out there who are all - ALL - saying the same things: the market is crowded, demand is down and businesses are failing because of it.
This x-mas season will most likely see another round of closures as retailers who are hanging on hope for - and don't get - seasonal sales that will let them limp through another year; I'm guessing on that, but given what's happening on the ordering side of things right now (should be picking up for the fall) its a pretty good bet that it will be a lackluster christmas for paintball.
Being a 'high-end' portion of the industry, its no surprise that tournament ball is suffering proportionally; its also no surprise that there's some growth on the scenario side of things (its cheaper) and some growth on the sales of lower-end paints (cheaper) - but all that is just a symptom of the fact that there are fewer sales - and increasingly fewer sales for lesser dollars.
You want a positive spin? The 'poorly run' companies will be run out of business, making for a solider industry. Great - if it were true, which its not. Good companies are going under for a variety of reasons - locale, dependance on other companies, unfair competitive practices, temporary circumstance (the crappy field down the road happens to have more cash on hand right now than the good field).
I'm looking for an alternative to the buggy whip. Anyone else with sufficient brains to recognize the handwriting on the wall will either read what it says or try to clean it off. Europe may be growing right now - but I'm not in europe and I don't pay for the groceries with pounds, eurodollars, marks or francs - and I've never even attempted to discuss the international scene - just the one here in the (torture is legal) USofA. Seems like denial is becoming a fad...
DOH! of course there's no direct connection between tournament attendance and industry downfall. It was an interesting comparison, that's all.
And, my friend (and Baca too) - you're incorrect if you're assuming that the industry's problems are due to a few companies out-spending their cash flow - and probably for two separate reasons.
First - suppose for the moment that it is just cash flow issues; welp, guess what? those companies supported lots of other companies, which in turn supported yet others, etc. The drying up of their ready cash has already negatively affected several manufacturers, numerous freelance designers and directly affected multiple fields and stores who were economically propped up by sweetheart funding and supply deals.
Second - those folks had a previously good track record of assessing the ebb and flow of the industry and deciding when the time (and cash) was ripe for making big moves - like acquiring smaller companies and building three new warehouses.
Think about it for just a few seconds (well, some of you may have to devote a couple of minutes...); what's the difference between the previous decade of growth and expansion and the last couple of years? Could it be that they've turned into spendthrift idiots overnight? Maybe. But I think it more likely that the steady ROI they were counting on to support future growth went bye-bye. There's two reasons that could have happened: increased competition in the marketplace (definately some of that - most of which are the companies that got purchased by the people we're talking about) OR - significant decrease in demand.
There's no doubt that the industry is contracting - none whatsoever - and I talk and consult on a regular basis with some of the largest companies out there who are all - ALL - saying the same things: the market is crowded, demand is down and businesses are failing because of it.
This x-mas season will most likely see another round of closures as retailers who are hanging on hope for - and don't get - seasonal sales that will let them limp through another year; I'm guessing on that, but given what's happening on the ordering side of things right now (should be picking up for the fall) its a pretty good bet that it will be a lackluster christmas for paintball.
Being a 'high-end' portion of the industry, its no surprise that tournament ball is suffering proportionally; its also no surprise that there's some growth on the scenario side of things (its cheaper) and some growth on the sales of lower-end paints (cheaper) - but all that is just a symptom of the fact that there are fewer sales - and increasingly fewer sales for lesser dollars.
You want a positive spin? The 'poorly run' companies will be run out of business, making for a solider industry. Great - if it were true, which its not. Good companies are going under for a variety of reasons - locale, dependance on other companies, unfair competitive practices, temporary circumstance (the crappy field down the road happens to have more cash on hand right now than the good field).
I'm looking for an alternative to the buggy whip. Anyone else with sufficient brains to recognize the handwriting on the wall will either read what it says or try to clean it off. Europe may be growing right now - but I'm not in europe and I don't pay for the groceries with pounds, eurodollars, marks or francs - and I've never even attempted to discuss the international scene - just the one here in the (torture is legal) USofA. Seems like denial is becoming a fad...
I'm contrarian to things I think are oversimplified or mistaken. You just don't notice all the things I agree with and just don't say anything.
Plus, agreement is dull.
Tournament paintball is suffering disproportionately. For a long time a lot more money was put into tournaments than they rationally deserved, and now when the belt tightens, that money is the first money to get removed from the equation. To even suggest that tournaments suffer proportionally is ridiculous - it CAN'T be true. Touraments are the LEAST necessary expense and thus the first to go. If the industry was at a constant level, you'd still expect tournament expenses to get reigned in because they've just been so exhorbitant until now, and if the industry was in contraction, you'd expect tournament expenses to get reigned in at a much quicker rate than anything else.
I also think it's important to note that we're really talking about *NATIONAL* tournaments here, where teams were traditionally paid for by paintball companies. Look at CFOA, XPSL, and other leagues, where the costs are paid for by the CONSUMERS - they arn't declining at all. If what you say is true, and we really are declining as an industry, how come all the regional/local tournament leagues arn't folding left and right?
One of the problems with paintball is people knowing just enough to be dangerous. And thinking "There's less money to support tournament teams so the industry must be contracting" is a symptom of exactly that. It's not true. The industry this year is just as big as it was last year. Businesses are just being forced to realize that you can't support twice as many businesses as you had three years ago on the same revenue base.
Participants and revenue stayed the same. Business expenses (existing and new businesses) did not. When that happens, the businesses are going to feel it.
Plus, agreement is dull.
Steve, you can sit here all day and make stuff up, but that doesn't make it any more true than when I sit here and make stuff up.
Tournament paintball is suffering disproportionately. For a long time a lot more money was put into tournaments than they rationally deserved, and now when the belt tightens, that money is the first money to get removed from the equation. To even suggest that tournaments suffer proportionally is ridiculous - it CAN'T be true. Touraments are the LEAST necessary expense and thus the first to go. If the industry was at a constant level, you'd still expect tournament expenses to get reigned in because they've just been so exhorbitant until now, and if the industry was in contraction, you'd expect tournament expenses to get reigned in at a much quicker rate than anything else.
I also think it's important to note that we're really talking about *NATIONAL* tournaments here, where teams were traditionally paid for by paintball companies. Look at CFOA, XPSL, and other leagues, where the costs are paid for by the CONSUMERS - they arn't declining at all. If what you say is true, and we really are declining as an industry, how come all the regional/local tournament leagues arn't folding left and right?
One of the problems with paintball is people knowing just enough to be dangerous. And thinking "There's less money to support tournament teams so the industry must be contracting" is a symptom of exactly that. It's not true. The industry this year is just as big as it was last year. Businesses are just being forced to realize that you can't support twice as many businesses as you had three years ago on the same revenue base.
Participants and revenue stayed the same. Business expenses (existing and new businesses) did not. When that happens, the businesses are going to feel it.
