Break up of the euro imminant.

[stongle]

Jesus Bon, you read far too many Tom Clancy books to be anywhere near credible (Mark Toye speaks the truth). Even if the spread Italy pays on it's debt is greater than Greece, it's better able to service the debt (due to lower levels of individual indebtedness - they can screw the populace much easier!!!)

Italy's problem, is the amount of debt to be refinanced within the next 3 years, the yield that is locked in will cost them billions just to service. They will have to increase revenues and cut spending to do this, but Italy is not Greece.

The £ is closely correlated to the fortunes of the Euro zone (as our biggest trading partner), whether you agree with closer integration (or not), you cannot ignore this simple truth. If the Euro zone implodes, we're all in the sh*t. A £ that increases in value, only makes it easier for us to import goods and services, damaging our already ravaged economy.

As to ever joining the Euro, I think that's dead in the water; for good. The experiment has largely failed given the different fiscal needs of the member states, and there is little correlation between Britain and say the southern Euro states. Sure it worked for a little while - the Greeks racked up debts on silly sh*t and the Germans unloaded BMWs all other the shop, but the die was cast from the beginning (especially given most member states cooked the books for membership).

It's a bit of a shame that the only people remotely able to sort some of this mess out - the Financial Sector, is now the G20's whipping boy. BASLE 3, Dodd-Frank (and in particular the Volker Rule), EMIR and then a potential Tobin Tax will make it almost impossible for any bank to offer Credit or financial services at anywhere near today's rates, there goes any private sector stimulus. It's bit of shame that the people protesting in St Pauls, Wall Street, Trade Unions, Public Sector workers, oh and the Govt (in particular that odious c**t Vince Cable), failed to realise this. Let them eat cake I say.

 

[Buddha 3]

Really? Interesting point of view although obviously you refer to political and economic manoeuvrings rather than military (which was the thrust of that point)

Perhaps you have seen the Belgian army mustering on Germany's border?

Hey, them Belgians are scary man!

Seriously though, it always starts politically and economic way before it gets military. I will expand on it later, but there are frightening similarities between what is happening now and what happened during the Interbellum.

 

[stongle]

Hmmm, Bon may now be correct (which is a frikkin worrying thing).

EUR hit's new floor against the dollar this year. Lots of Govts now want out of last weeks fiscal accord and Italy want to u-turn some of their austerity measures. You couldn't make it up!

Germany to leave the Euro is what we're selling.

 

[Robbo]

I have always disliked economics because it is loosely based upon mathematics as a skeleton giving the subject [Economics] a lot more credit than it actually deserves ... in fact, most of economics is a curious mixture of maths and bullsh!t and the real trick is to unweave those two properties if indeed it can actually be achieved.
A wise man once observed,'there are two qualities that underpin financial marketplaces, and those are fear and greed.

Those two features of modern day financial dealings are held hostage to such abuse that things like the sub-prime example can in one day, reposition financial market places where the head is firmly wedged up its own ass.
And who pays for this greed?
A silly question really but it's also pertinent ...... but out of all the crahp I have witnessed these past years, the most dangerous thing I have seen is the palpable lack of power governments have over the banks and financial institutions who by the way are still raping the fuhk out of our wallets.
The heads of these institutions must be laughing their bollocks off at how little the average man can do to stop CEOs and company owners awarding themselves huge bonuses and rises, and this is on the back of us bailing them out .... and the eunuch [David Cameron] is trying to look as though he is doing something with his pathetic set of measures which in effect does nothing to stop any of the pillaging that's going on still ....... the answer to all this is quite simple really but it would mean someone growing a set of balls and doing something that will have a true and much-needed effect on financial institutions in the UK ....
Loan me Belmarsh for a few months, throw in a couple of hundred Bunsen-burners and another few hundred sets of pliers and I'll have the situation worked out easily enough .. we need to get medieval on their ass .. instead of what Cameron's serving up, a talcum-powdered pat down.

 

[stongle]

Pete, I disagree the politicians not the banks are to blame (here and now, 2007 the answer would the be banks and Hedge Funds). The sub-prime fiasco has little correlation to structural government deficits and the sovereign debt crisis, particularly in Europe. The money spent propping up the financial system (or the banks) is buttons compared to the billions wasted on social programs across Europe simply designed to win votes and keep politicians on power. For the last 30 years Govts have been making promises to their peoples on pensions, social welfare etc they simply could not afford.

Sure a lot of banks in the past have been mismanaged and the regulators failed to control them, but the raft of legislation hitting the Financial sector is causing Tier 1 Capital rations to increase for some banks by 1000%. This causes a contraction of credit, which at the same time the Govts (and regulators) force the banks to hold more (and this is where it gets frikkin surreal), more Govt debt. In 2006 RBS had a Tier 1 capital ration of 1%, this means it could only absorb losses of 1% on a given day before being technically insolvent.

Very few are clean in all this, Govts, bankers, people whom bought Range Rovers with Equity release schemes etc etc; but the route out of this is not what the papers or popular opinion says. If the smart money says Germany may well leave the Euro zone, do you really think you can trust the politicians and what is being reported in the press…..

 

[Spooly]

the reality of it is .. is that we will all still conform to whatever happens like sheep to a shepard!

this whole thread is pointless

 

[stongle]

the reality of it is .. is that we will all still conform to whatever happens like sheep to a shepard!

this whole thread is pointless

No, you're pointless. The whole thread (and this part of the forum) is for people to post opinions, if you don't have one, you're value here is limited.

 

[Cook$]

Top Tip: Euros make cheap alternatives for chocolate coins at Christmas.

 

[Barfoot]

I Strongly believe that if The UK breaks away from the Europe it would be catastrophe to the many communities first areas that are dependant on ESF funding as they are often in the lower bracket of the social specdrum which will be lost of the break away is completed, there are a vast majoirty of public sectior funding projects and organisations that will closedown as a result the loss of this funding that will result in more job losses, it will be a wrong step for the further of the UK travel, the Government will go so far right that even thatcher herself would turn in her grave, the coalition are quite clearly in the process of meltdown as result the government is needs reform

 

[stongle]

I don't think anyone will benefit from leaving the Euro zone (or the UK is seriously considering it), but the break up of the Euro as a single currency unit. As to the coalition, don't believe the hype. The LibDems may be in the prcoess of melting down - they have consistently failed to understand the economic impacts of the eurozone and their tax, borrow spend policies; but I think the conservative fraction are steering teh ship in very, very choppy waters.