For this year Baca, what are the like-for-like trade shows in size/number etc? Other than Cup PSP have always struggled, and other than HB the NPPL have always stuggled, although Commanders has normally been a better "second best" event compared to Chicago in terms of vendor turn out (when I've been).
I don't know when you've been, but the vendor turnout for Chicago has 'always' been better than the vendor turnout for San Diego - and by 'always' I mean the past two years when I've been to both.
Also worth noting that at this point, the only people actually paying for big vendor spots are JT and Spyder (Angel and KEE get free plat sponsorships as a result of earlier deals).
As to the topic at hand..
I think both leagues suffer from geography a bit. There is not a whole lot of XBall being played on the west coast, and there's minimal 7-man being played on the east coast. So when PSP moved from LA to Phoenix, they lost 15% of teams - pretty much all the SoCal teams that would play that one event who didn't take the trip over to Phoenix. But the rest of PSP's events are out east, where XBall and 5-man are strong, and they'll continue to do well, as they did at MAO, which was basically the same as last year.
NPPL on the other hand has a strong 7-man feeder league on the west coast (XPSL), but not so much on the east coast. There's NEPL and GPL, but they don't just do straight 7-man, and there's also AXBL and CXBL in that area feeding XBall. So NPPL is stuck with 3 7-man events that are not near many 7-man teams.
On top of that, I've always felt that PSP's teams are more die-hard, competitive, live-eat-breathe paintball teams, while NPPL teams are less "I must play paintball to live" teams and more "paintball is a cool vacation" teams. I think both the historic marketing of the two leagues (PSP has none) and the formats contribute to this. There's a lot more 'variableness' in 7-man, so any team can win a game, where as with XBall the better team is almost always going to win the match. (PSP also has a tournament structure that's much less random - when you're taking one team out of a bracket of 4, you're really applying a lot of luck to who wins)
The consequence of that is that when times get tough, the paintball vacation teams will just decide to not take the vacation, whereas the live-eat-breathe paintball teams will work longer hours, drink less beer, donate more plasma, or whatever it takes. So I think the 'tough times' has a greater impact on NPPL attendance.
I think NPPL has had two to three years of providing a sub-par product and that's having its toll as well. I was at HB and a lot of the issues of last year seemed to be improved, particularly on the referee front, but it's going to take more than one event to convince people they've made lasting improvements. Although it'll be easier for them to continue to put on a good product if they only have to deal with 126 teams at a time.
But there are other issues NPPL has not fixed - having events in stadium parking lots might help them get some out-of-industry sponsorship, but I think the players are over the whole stadium thing at this point. Players are sick of turf on pavement. NPPL still doesn't have a real ID system (PSP's has been going for 5 years) - DESPITE (and I know this for a fact) there being an ID system available for them to use at a price less than what they're paying to get it done now.
In '03 and '04, NPPL had a product that kicked PSP's butt. They got a bunch of good will off of that even as the quality of product slipped, and NPPL has always had a great promotions story. But I think thats all starting to wear out. It's been 5 years and the promotions story has not delivered. The players don't care anymore - they want to pay for good events. And PSP is better than NPPL in every aspect of the event - better format, better playing surfaces, better reffing, better registration and classification.
At the end of the day, NPPL's failure is not having respect for the game. There is no one over at Pacific Paintball, with the possible exception of Camille, who places a priority on the paintball itself. It's all business guys focused on what kind of media value they can get from the audience. They simply don't seem to think tournaments are a core product that they need to focus on.
PSP's failure is the reverse. It's full of people who have extreme respect for the game, but no vision/willingness/ability/something to get the media value to let them do even more for the sport.
Neither of those is going to get us anywhere, but only one of those is going to get people to open their wallets to pay entry fees.